The Development Scenarios and Environmental Impacts of China's Aluminum Industry: Implications of Import and Export Transition

Aluminum is widely used in buildings, transportation, and home appliances. However, primary aluminum production a resource, energy, emission-intensive industrial process. As the world's largest producer, industry (ALD) China faces tremendous pressure on environmental protection. This study combines material flow analysis scenario to investigate potential of resource conservation, energy saving, emission reduction for China's ALD under import export trade transition. The results show per capita stock will follow logistic curve reach 415 kg/capita by 2030. unlike continued build-up stocks, domestic demand peak at 44 million tons (MT) 2025 fall 36 MT reveals that output could around 52 if restrictions are not implemented (Scenario A). Compared Scenario A, effectively limited Scenarios B C where exports products reduced. Correspondingly, both scenarios also have obvious benefits reducing load ALD. Besides, hydropower electrolysis increases 25% 2030, total GHG emissions 2030 be reduced 12%. Therefore, promoting import/export mix transformation can become an essential means sustainable development